Wednesday, June 2, 2010

PHEW.

Just three more days of this sweltering heat

Respite from searing heat is round the corner. A cyclone is brewing in the Arabain Sea that will usher in rain and squally wind in the state’s coastal districts. Lower temperature in Ahmedabad will be the offshoot, say experts.

Mercury that breached 45 degrees Celsius and killed 55 in the city over the past few days will dip to around 36 degrees on June 3. After that the cyclonic storm and the imminent monsoon will ensure the mercury stays below 40 degrees.


















Says Ashok Patel, the director of the state’s first private weather station Ring Road, “On Thursday and Friday, temperature will go down by up to four degrees due to clouds. If it rains temperature will slide down further.”

Patel’s forecast was reaffirmed by the US weather web site www.weather.com which had correctly predicted mercury hitting 46.8 degrees in the city on May 21. The site forecast temperature rising to 38 degrees on June 5 but said it would stay well below for the rest of the summer.

An ISRO scientist, earlier attached with the weather bureau, said it is natural for the temperature to fall due to formation of cloud as it cuts the sunrays.



“You can expect the temperature to fall by up to four degrees Celsius, thanks to the cyclonic clouds,” he said.

According to Indian Meteorological Department, coastal Gujarat is likely to experience rain in the next three days and with monsoon arriving in Kerala on Monday people in Gujarat can expect rains soon.

Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate the formation of a depression in the Arabian Sea about 1050 km southwest of Mumbai and 1050 km south-southwest of Naliya in Kutch at 5.30 pm on Monday. The depression was moving northwestward and likely to hit South Gujarat and Saurashtra coast on June 3 after correcting its course.


“The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and continue to move initially in a northwesterly direction for the next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast,” the Indian Meteorological Department said in its weather bulletin on Monday evening.

The system will usher in fairly widespread rainfall with very heavy rain at some places over the coastal Gujarat on June 3. Squally winds with speed reaching 55 kmph would hit the coast a day earlier, the met report said.

The state disaster management authority has taken note of the bulletin and alerted collectors of the coastal district.

Said Sanjay Joshi, the CEO of the Gujarat State Disaster Control Room, “The Met Department has warned of a cyclone. Even if the intensity of the cyclone lessens, Saurashtra and south Gujarat will experience heavy rain under its influence. The IMD warning has been forwarded to the districts and all collectors concerned have been alerted.”

The IMD bulletin also warned of very rough seas along and off the Gujarat coast from June 2 and advised fishermen not to venture into the sea during that period.

After a year of drought, the eagerly-awaited seasonal monsoon rains have reached Kerala, the weather office said.

“South-west monsoon has reached Kerala and we expect it to cover coastal Karnataka within a day,” Ajit Tyagi, IMD Director General announced in New Delhi earlier in the day.

However, Tyagi said due to the storm brewing in the Arabian Sea, the progression of the monsoon was expected to be along the western coast and interior parts of the peninsula would get rains later.

The onset of monsoon over Kerala sets the stage for the four-month rainy season. The IMD has forecast normal monsoon rains for the season beginning June 1.

A good monsoon could help in sowing of rice, sugarcane, soybean and corn and lead to a rebound in the agricultural output.


The current environmental condition and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and continue to move initially in a northwesterly direction for the next 48 hours and then recurve northeastwards towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast

–  The Indian Meteorological Department

You can expect the temperature to fall by up to four degrees Celsius, thanks to cyclonic clouds which cuts the sunrays

– An ISRO scientist

On Thursday and Friday, temperature will go down by up to four degrees due to clouds. If it rains, the temperature will slide down further

– Ashok Patel, the director of the state’s first private weather station Ring Road

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